On August 19, 2025, Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, reported that President Donald Trump holds a 5% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris at 2%, despite his constitutional ineligibility under the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms. The surprising odds reflect bettors’ belief in Trump’s enduring influence, with some speculating he could push for a constitutional amendment, though experts deem this unlikely, requiring two-thirds majorities in Congress and ratification by 38 states.
Kalshi’s markets, which accurately predicted Trump’s 2024 victory, show Vice President JD Vance leading GOP contenders at 44%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 14% for Democrats. Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, faces skepticism about a 2028 run, with her donor network weakened. The betting odds, while not definitive, highlight Trump’s grip on the Republican base, with 49% favoring a GOP win in 2028 versus 51% for Democrats. Some bettors even wager on a Trump family member, like Donald Trump Jr., carrying forward his legacy.
Critics dismiss the odds as speculative, noting Trump’s ineligibility is absolute without constitutional change. Political analyst Joshua Douglas emphasized that elections will proceed, with Trump’s term ending January 20, 2029. The buzz underscores the polarized climate, with Trump’s influence shaping early 2028 speculation despite legal barriers.
