A new Yahoo/YouGov poll released September 4, 2025, positions California Governor Gavin Newsom as the frontrunner in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race, leading Vice President JD Vance 49% to 41% among registered voters. The survey highlights Newsom’s rising national profile as he emerges as the top Democratic contender for the presidency, bolstered by his aggressive opposition to President Trump’s policies, including high-profile battles over immigration and redistricting.
Newsom’s lead comes amid his strategic moves to build a national brand, including fundraising efforts and visits to battleground states like South Carolina. The poll shows him commanding 21% support in the Democratic primary, edging out Kamala Harris at 19%. His appeal spans younger voters and key demographics, with a 14-point surge among Black voters and an 18-point jump among those over 70. Conversely, Vance, the Republican favorite with 52% support in GOP primaries, struggles to broaden his base beyond Trump’s loyalists, hampered by perceptions of his hardline stances.
Critics, including the Republican National Committee, slam Newsom’s record, citing California’s high taxes and crime rates as liabilities. Yet, his favorability on leadership and redistricting outpaces Vance, who faces skepticism in swing states. The poll’s 8-point gap suggests a competitive race, with 10% of voters undecided, particularly in middle America.
As Trump is barred from a third term, Newsom’s early edge signals Democratic momentum, while Vance’s campaign must overcome regional challenges to close the gap. The 2028 race is shaping up as a clash of contrasting visions for America’s future.
