OSLO – Just days before the Norwegian Nobel Committee unveils the 2025 Peace Prize winner, President Donald Trump’s star has faded in the eyes of gamblers, with betting markets dramatically cutting his odds amid whispers of committee skepticism over his “transactional” diplomacy. Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, now pegs Trump’s chances at a mere 2.7 percent—down from a Sunday peak of 4.9 percent and a mid-August high of 14.5 percent—reflecting bettors’ cooling enthusiasm for his Gaza ceasefire breakthrough.
The slide follows a volatile ride: Odds surged to 25 percent on Star Sports after Israel’s tentative nod to Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan last week, making him a co-favorite with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 3/1. Ladbrokes and Unibet briefly listed him at +200 (33 percent implied probability), buoyed by nominations from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leaders in Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Rwanda, and Cambodia. Yet by Thursday, joint favoritism evaporated, with Yulia Navalnaya—widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny—at 6/1 and Doctors Without Borders at 5/1, per Oddschecker aggregates.
Trump’s advocates point to his Abraham Accords expansion and seven averted conflicts—from Armenia-Azerbaijan to Cambodia-Thailand—as Nobel-caliber feats. “He deserves it more than Obama got it in 10 seconds,” Trump griped on Truth Social, referencing the 2009 award to his predecessor. Sons Eric and Don Jr. rallied with retweets, amassing millions of views, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick declared him “undeniably worthy.”
Skeptics, however, cite the committee’s preference for sustained, non-militaristic efforts. Sources close to the process tell The Telegraph that last-minute additions like Trump’s post-deadline pledges (nomination cutoff: January 31) rarely sway the five-member panel. “It’s about fraternity, not flash,” one insider noted, echoing concerns over fragile Gaza phase one—hostage releases pending, disarmament in flux. Betting volumes spiked 76 percent Thursday, but Polymarket’s 5 percent cap signals doubt: A late climb from 3 percent notwithstanding, the market smells upset.
With 338 nominees and the October 10 reveal looming, Trump’s odds tumble underscores a Nobel irony: The dealmaker-in-chief, eyeing a fifth U.S. presidential win, may find Oslo’s bar too high. For his base, it’s rigged; for critics, fitting. As bettors cash out, the real prize remains elusive—peace, or the perception thereof.
