Sacramento, CA – Former Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear frontrunner in a hypothetical 2026 California gubernatorial primary, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey released on April 17, 2025. Conducted with Inside California Politics and The Hill, the poll shows Harris commanding 31% support among registered voters planning to vote in the primary, giving her a 23-point lead over former Rep. Katie Porter, who polled at 8%. Republican Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco trailed with 4%, while other Democrats like Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Xavier Becerra each garnered 2%. A significant 39% of voters remain undecided.
Harris’s lead underscores her enduring influence in California, where she previously served as San Francisco district attorney, state attorney general, and U.S. senator. Her national profile, however, is a double-edged sword following her loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The poll reveals a divided electorate—50% of voters believe Harris should run for governor, while 50% think she should not. Earlier Emerson polls from February 2025 highlighted her strong support among key demographics: 60% of women, 61% of Hispanics, and 64% of Black voters back her.
Without Harris in the race, Porter’s support rises to 12%, but 54% of voters remain undecided, signaling Harris’s dominance in the field. Some Democratic heavyweights, like Attorney General Rob Bonta, have already stepped aside, with Bonta endorsing Harris and citing her “field-clearing” potential. However, California’s “top two” primary system—where the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party—could complicate the race. A fragmented Democratic field might allow a Republican like Bianco to slip into the general election.
Harris has not yet confirmed her candidacy but reportedly set a self-imposed deadline to decide by the end of summer 2025. Her potential run has sparked mixed reactions on X, with some users mocking her viability after 2024, one calling her a “political placeholder” with low approval ratings as vice president. Others see her as a formidable candidate, given her deep California roots and national experience.
As the 2026 race takes shape, Harris’s decision could reshape the Democratic field and influence her rumored 2028 presidential ambitions. For now, her lead in the polls positions her as a force to be reckoned with in California politics, even as skeptics question whether she can overcome her recent electoral setbacks.
