Trenton, NJ – At 1:03 AM +07 on Saturday, May 17, 2025, a new Emerson College poll released this week confirms that Trump-endorsed Jack Ciattarelli holds a commanding 26-point lead over rival Bill Spadea in the 2025 New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary, with 44% to Spadea’s 18%. The poll, conducted May 11-13 in partnership with Pix11 and The Hill, solidifies Ciattarelli’s frontrunner status as the June 10 primary approaches, highlighting the significant influence of President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a race that could signal Republican momentum in a traditionally blue state.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and the 2021 GOP nominee who narrowly lost to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, has maintained a consistent lead in polls throughout the campaign. The Emerson poll shows state Sen. Jon Bramnick trailing at 8%, with contractor Justin Barbera and former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac at 2% each, while 23% of voters remain undecided. This aligns with earlier surveys, like a January Emerson poll showing Ciattarelli at 26% to Spadea’s 13%, but his lead has widened significantly since Trump’s endorsement on May 12, where he praised Ciattarelli as a “terrific America First Candidate” who is “100% (PLUS!)” on Truth Social.
The endorsement, following separate March meetings between Ciattarelli and Spadea with Trump at his Bedminster golf club, has reshaped the race. Spadea, a former radio host known for his far-right views, has positioned himself as the “true Trump ally,” often highlighting Trump’s past praise on his show. However, Trump’s backing of Ciattarelli—a former critic who once called Trump a “charlatan” in 2015 but later embraced MAGA—has left Spadea struggling to gain traction. Spadea responded defiantly, stating on May 13 that Trump’s endorsement “comes after a years-long effort by Jack to lie about his own record,” vowing to continue fighting for the America First agenda.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has leveraged Trump’s support effectively, with the candidate expressing gratitude on X: “Truly humbled and honored to receive President Trump’s very strong endorsement.” His focus on kitchen-table issues like property taxes and affordability resonates with GOP voters, as does his narrative of electability—having come within 3 points of unseating Murphy in 2021. Meanwhile, Spadea’s campaign, backed by Trump’s 2020 campaign manager Bill Stepien, has struggled to close the gap despite heavy ad spending, with internal polls from Ciattarelli’s team showing an even wider 54%-23% lead on May 11.
The race reflects broader GOP dynamics in New Jersey, where Trump’s 2024 performance—losing the state by just 6 points, the closest in decades—has fueled hopes of reclaiming the governorship for the first time since Chris Christie’s 2013 re-election. However, the primary’s focus on Trump allegiance raises questions about general election viability. Ashley Koning of Rutgers University noted on March 26 that appealing to MAGA voters might hurt the GOP nominee in November, given New Jersey’s Democratic lean. The Emerson poll shows 53% of voters want the next governor to work with Trump, while 47% prefer opposition, underscoring the state’s divided electorate.
As the primary nears, Ciattarelli’s lead, bolstered by Trump’s endorsement and high name recognition, positions him as the likely nominee. Yet, Spadea’s insistence on continuing the fight and the 23% undecided voters suggest the race isn’t over. The outcome will test Trump’s influence in a blue state and set the stage for a contentious general election to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy.
